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  1. #11
    Never Knows Best's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wormstrum View Post
    In a set of 10 attempts against Mongo the results went as follows:

    0 wounds: 10%
    1 Wound: 0%
    2 Wounds: 40%
    3 Wounds: 30%
    4 Wounds: 20%
    MATH!

    On average, it takes almost exactly 1 AP for a Pud Swarm to deal 1 damage to Mongo (1.03), meaning on average it would take about 4.1 AP (slightly more than 4) to kill him (the 2 wound average is about spot-on). There are a lot of attacks per AP which means more rolls and a more gradual/less steep curve.

    Still, the odds of killing Mongo in one go aren't great. The 10% chance to not cause a wound is spot on (9.8%). 20% chance to cause at least 4 wounds sounds off though, it sounds high.

  2. #12
    Hoj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Never Knows Best View Post
    MATH!

    On average, it takes almost exactly 1 AP for a Pud Swarm to deal 1 damage to Mongo (1.03), meaning on average it would take about 4.1 AP (slightly more than 4) to kill him (the 2 wound average is about spot-on). There are a lot of attacks per AP which means more rolls and a more gradual/less steep curve.

    Still, the odds of killing Mongo in one go aren't great. The 10% chance to not cause a wound is spot on (9.8%). 20% chance to cause at least 4 wounds sounds off though, it sounds high.
    Yeah all my math was wrong, I used an outdated 1ap / 5 attack basis. Odds still arent the best but it can really mess up someone's day if you hit multiple bases at once, squishy high pv guys, things like medics, sister of compassion, strikes, bone docs, soul wardens, etc...
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    #Ignore

  3. #13
    Never Knows Best's Avatar
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    in case you were curious...

    the odds of getting AT LEAST 4 wounds on mongo off of 2 AP's worth of attacks is about 11.05%... not counting losing AP to 20 rolls.

    However, since there is a 26.5% chance of rolling at least 1 20 on the first set of rolls (and only a .6% chance of getting at least 4 wounds in the first AP), this means, with the fact that the first 5 attacks might roll a 20 thereby eliminating your second series of attacks, your odds are brought down to a dismal 4.3%.

    It's hard to calculate all the possible buffs and in game effects but the easiest to do is the fact that it's likely the first set of attacks will be a charge. This does improve things up to 6.36%.

    6.36% an Assassinating Pud Swarm can cause at least the full 4 wounds on Mongo during the prep phase, provided the first AP is a charge. Not bad... not super-awesome.

  4. #14
    Hoj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Never Knows Best View Post
    in case you were curious...

    the odds of getting AT LEAST 4 wounds on mongo off of 2 AP's worth of attacks is about 11.05%... not counting losing AP to 20 rolls.

    However, since there is a 26.5% chance of rolling at least 1 20 on the first set of rolls (and only a .6% chance of getting at least 4 wounds in the first AP), this means, with the fact that the first 5 attacks might roll a 20 thereby eliminating your second series of attacks, your odds are brought down to a dismal 4.3%.

    It's hard to calculate all the possible buffs and in game effects but the easiest to do is the fact that it's likely the first set of attacks will be a charge. This does improve things up to 6.36%.

    6.36% an Assassinating Pud Swarm can cause at least the full 4 wounds on Mongo during the prep phase, provided the first AP is a charge. Not bad... not super-awesome.
    Never, thanks for the math hammer, it makes sense. I'm going to try a list at 750 this weekend, will post results.

    Going w/ - Murtros, Howler, Pud Swarm, Alpha Pud, Broodhound x4, and Broodling x2

    Will use the dirty / cool trick mentioned here and see how it goes.
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  5. #15
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    Defenitely post a report on how the game goes.

    Im a a big fan of Murtros only because he's really different from Helexa and MJB.
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  6. #16

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    I tried out the Pud Swarm assassinate against St. Mary yesterday. It got 1 hit on the charge and 1 on the 2nd AP. Mary made both armor saves. No wounds

  7. #17
    Hoj's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klepto View Post
    I tried out the Pud Swarm assassinate against St. Mary yesterday. It got 1 hit on the charge and 1 on the 2nd AP. Mary made both armor saves. No wounds
    Yeah math hammer proved no saint bashing with the swarm. It should be used on softer high value targets, i.e. medics, strikes, contradictions, banger/deathstryke, junkers, sister of x, etc...

    Will post results of battle once I get a chance to play it.
    A lion does not concern himself with the opinions of a sheep.

    #Ignore

  8. #18
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    Yeah, saints not so much. But a kukulkani war priest will get taken apart pretty quickly by this trick
    You must die! I alone am best!

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